Fantasy Football "Experts" and Mock Drafts

Okay so you're an avid fantasy football player. You research the players and stats. You get the magazines and maybe even subscribe to a pay-site or two but did you ever notice what these guys say never really works out that way in your real draft? You get 10 "experts" on ESPN and  in the first 2 rounds 16 picks are RBs. Now has anyone ever had a draft like that? I know I haven't. The four QB barrier would have been broke before the end of the first round. A WR or two would go too. About half the picks in the first round would be RBs and there would be lots of crazy picks. A mid 2nd round WR going 5th. Stuff like that. The further it got along in the draft the more unpredictable it got. Some players got taken several spots too high and some absolute gems fell very far. In a real live draft like that you just don't know and your ability to improvise can be everything. That's why I take the mock drafts and experts on TV with a grain of salt. They never take into account the unpredictability of who you may be playing in a league with. You better be on your toes.

My Keeper League Team in an 8 team league. Muast keep at least 10 of 23 . I'm keeping 10, which means I will have the first pick, Trent Richardson people, :) Here's my ten keepers.

QB- Matthew Stafford

RB- DeMarco Murray

RB-Adrian Peterson

RB-Chris Johnson

RB- Beanie Wells

RB- Johnathan Stewart

WR- Greg Jennings

WR- Kenny Britt

WR- Jeremy Maclin

TE- Antonion Gates

Trent Richardson is supposed to be the real deal. I believe it. He has all the tools to make it in the NFL. He could be worth a first round pick if he Has it together from day one. Cleveland is trying a new look and he's the face. If he produces you're getting a steal for the next 5 years no matter where you draft him.

I'll certainly get the first pick which even though I'm loaded at RB that will give me a lot of trade bait.I will have a lot of combinations of backs I can pull off blockbuster trades for. And the good thing is, everyone always needs RBs.

I 'm not great at WR but solid. If Jennings does his thing I got a decent WR1 who will produce steadily week to week.

Britt will all depend on his knee which I'm counting on too much. If he can bounce back he is a star in the making but I think that may be a year a away but well worth keeping on a dynasty team. He'll get around 65 catches 1'000 yards and 6 or 7 scores this year. In any case expect a breakout game or two, then next year if things go smoothly the wait will be well worth it.

Maclin isn't the sexiest option for a fill in WR but he gets the job done. While Desean Jackson is more likely to rack up the big plays and numbers Maclin is the one getting the steady work underneath. HE's a steady 4-6 catches for 50-75 yards and a TD every couple of games. He even breaks out and has a big game every so often. Don't sleep on Maclin he's a blue collar guy.

Antonio Gates has been a staple TE for my team for many years. He's always been one of the best. Unfortunately his foot problems have hobbled him as of late and left him ineffective at times. However There aren't really a lot of alternatives with his upside. The foot is said to be doing fine and dandy so who am I to argue. If he has a healthy productive season I get a TE who catches 75 passes for 900 yards and 8 TDs. I can pull my hair out trying to find a replacement who can do half that while he plays any way.

I know I didn't cover everyone but I'll get back to it later. Let me know what you guys think.

Top 5 Dynasty QBs Under 30

1. Aaron Rodgers- Do I really have to explain. In the next 5 years  he'll be the best QB probably two times. and in the top 5 all those years if not injured.

2. Cam Newton- Cam gives you a top 10 QB, and in easily turn into a top 5 QB passing the ball, while giving you low end RB2 numbers rushing he ball as well. He is a threat to be the top QB any year. His style could lead to durability issues but his upside is to the moon.

3. Matthew Stafford- He has  rocket arm and has the best deep threat in the game in Calvin Johnson. They can rack up points in a hurry. He also has the best Red Zone target in the game, Calvin. That equals lots of TDs. Oh and the Lions will throw the ball a ton. Up there with the league leaders. That means lots of yards for Stafford and lots of pints for you. No reason Stafford can't be a top 5 QB this season and for the next 5 to 10 seasons. Only his injury history could hold him back.

4.Andrew Luck- In the beginning RGIII may be slightly more productive. Don't count on it to last. Luck is set to make all the reads and can make all the throws. If he gets some pieces around him and I'm sure that will be what Indy did as they did with Peyton, he will be an elite NFL QB. A threat to be the top fantasy QB any given year. Expect some struggles and picks his rookie year but also expect a couple of monster games. Oh and don't think he won't pick up a few points with his feet. He won't approach Cam Newton Michael Vick numbers but more like Aaron Rodgers numbers on the ground. Not bad.

5. Robert Griffin III- It would be a travesty to keep him off this list just due to his off the chart upside. His nickname in camp before even a preseason game is "The Arm." How is the for a rookie that hasn't been higher touted in his home city than I don't since how long. He is not a mortal man in D.C. He is a savior. He has the Gold Arm the can throw the ball a mile with a lightening quick release. He can run an unbelievable sub par 4.4 40 and still throw the ball 70 yards in stride. How could they be this lucky. The thing is he is as good as they say he is. At least up to this point. The NFL Has only seen one athletic talent as gifted as Griffin at QB and that is Mike Vick. Vick in 2010 had possibly the best season a QB had ever had if not for missing 4 games to injury. While not quite the athlete Vick is Griffin is a much better athlete than any other QB in the NFL. He is also believed to be a fairly better passer. I'm not one to make definite judgements on comments like that until I  see him play a few NFL games but it's worth passing along. The main concern with RGIII is not his ability but possibly struggling to learn a pro style offense early in the season. I don't think this will be a big concern. The big concern for me is the same one for Vick. He's going to get tossed around like a rag-doll. He'll bruise ribs, he'll sprain shoulders, he'll get a concussion from all the big hits he'll take. He'll play decent as a rookie when he is in but I don't think he'll last a full 16. If he does the Redskins have a real shot a a .500 record and if they are lucky an outside shot at the division. Hell, 9-7 won it last year and that team won the Super Bowl. I  say he plays 10 games.

Consider Wes Welker 2nd Best WR

If this guy is healthy he's  a lock to catch at least 110 passes. His YPG may not be that high but who cares, he'll still be in the top 10 in yards. He'll catch about 8 TDs give or take a couple due simply to the fact that the Patriots will be in he Red Zone constantly. He's Brady's security blanket and will get plenty of red zone targets. It's what he makes of them that will decide if he's a top 5 fantasy WR or a top 10.

Overall I expect a good ear from Welker with a lot of catches, say 115 and mediocre TD numbers, about 7. He'll get a dazzling 1200 or so yards. Certainly not bad by any means. He'll be a top 3 in PPR leagues and around 7-8 in standard scoring.

While He's not quite putting up Calvin numbers in standard scoring leagues he could actually catch him if Calvin has a down year and Welker has an up year in PPR.

Bottom Line: If he's there and you need a WR get him!!

Why Cam Newton Won't Hit a Sophomore Slump

Why Cam Newton Won't Hit a Sophomore Slump

If you have a chance to get Cam Newton in your draft jump on the chance. Cam has had doubters for a long time. Even after his record setting rookie season people are still doubting if he just had a fluke season. He didn't. Sure he had his share of rookie mistakes and some inconsistencies but he was a rookie. And he was a better one than any QB to ever play the game. 

Star QBs passing numbers either tend to stay some what similar with a slight increase over their rookie season or they go up a considerably. Either case makes Cam Either case makes Cam a top 10 QB passing. I think he goes about the same in yards around 4,000 but beefs up his TD numbers to about 25. 

Now let's talk about his ground game. He will easily get in the 500-600 yard range rushing the football. I know he probably won't rush for 14 TDs again but I don't see why 10 is unreasonable. He scored 6 1 yard TDs last year. and I know they got Mike Tolbert and he will vulture some. Still when it comes down to it Cam is the best goal line back they have and hey know it. He'll still get about 3 1 yarders. Most of the rest are ones where he breaks a run from a short pass play inside the 10. I don't see that number going down either this year. I'll say 5 TDs from about the 2 -15 yard range on a scramble. Then you got to give him at least 2 big plays breaking free on a long run of at least 20 yards or so. Give or take a couple. Remember he is making a few up in the passing game too.

Main thing about Cam is he is a winner and the Panthers will be a decent team this year and one of the better teams in the NFC very soon mainly because of their star QB. He will put up top 5 numbers for at least 5 years if healthy. His play style could lead to some injuries and he could slow down quicker than normal. Then we'll have to see how well he can rely on his passing game. Don't count him out.

Be Very Catutious of AP

I know he looks like he could be the steal of the draft and there is an outside chance, very out side, that he could be. Truth is he suffered a very nasty injury. It saw it when it happened and I wondered if he would ever play football again.  

Now obviously he will but don't be surprised if he is very limited or ineffective this season. Look at Rashard Mendenhall. They are acting like he may not even play the first half of the season if at all. His injury was the same time Peterson's was. Is Peterson really healing that much faster. Jamal Charles is just now on the verge of being cleared for training camp and his ACL injury, which wasn't nearly as bad as AP's. Charles' injury was two and a half months before AP's. Is AP that much faster of a healer than Charles too? 

I would be very hesitant to count on AP the first 4 weeks of the season and if the Vikings play him and run him into the ground he could be in for a long season. If he is in good condition however I would expect good solid RB2 numbers. 1,150 yards and 6-8 TDs. He just has too much to over come physically to be the #1 fantasy back this year. I have him on a dynasty team and he is definitely worth a down year, which for him won't be a bad year, for what he will do in the future when healthy.

Why I have Julio Jones ranked 2nd WR in dynasty leagues

If Given the Choice Take Julio

          Did you see this guy go off last year? I know I did. He really hit his stride late. Last 4 games he had two 100 yard games and 6 TDs. I know if you had him in your lineup come playoff time you’re kissing your trophy right now. Ha-ha!! I know I am.

I almost dropped this guy when he kept being ineffective due to hamstring issues. He had 3 TDs over 50 yards and I don’t see any reason in the world given his speed, size and ball skills that it would go down.

The only thing that held back was he nagging hamstring injury he suffered during the middle of the season. He missed 4 games and was ineffective in others.  That’s always a concern but what football player is immune to injury? If he had played in those 4 games he would have put up Roddy White numbers, as a rookie. WRs numbers don’t typically go down after their rookie year.

That leads me to where he should be ranked in a dynasty league. Obviously Calvin Johnson is the top guy at WR in any format dynasty or redraft. After that it is a big mess, especially in dynasty. So my surprise pick as the 2^nd best dynasty WR is Julio Jones.

 Some say Fitzgerald but he lacks some upside and has QB issues.

Greg Jennings isn’t a bad option either but Green Bay moves the ball around a little too much and he is often nicked up.

I would be hard pressed to believe that Jody Nelson or Victor Cruz will repeat their fabulous seasons.

Hakeem Nicks has a foot injury and that is the kind that tends to linger. 

There are a couple of other players but you get my drift. None of these long lines of players is reliable for one reason or another.  

AJ Green is a tremendous talent but Julio is just as talented if not more so. AJ plays in a tough division for a team that likes to run. Plus he has a somewhat unproven QB. 

That brings me to Julio. What problem does he have? None other than he pulled a hamstring last year like nearly every other WR in the NFL. He has the talent to dominate the NFL like very, very few of those guys mentioned above and he’s as young or younger too.  He’s in the right system. He's one of the best deep threats in the game for those of you in leagues that reward long TDs. He’ll overtake Roddy as the star WR in Atlanta by next year if not sometime this year. He’s a steal waiting to happen in the early mid rounds.

Let the other people take all the top guys in the first couple of rounds then sit back and take Julio when they are done and laugh in their faces for the next 5 or so years.This guy is gold.